The Recession's Effect on Nanotech
The impact of the recession that started in 2008 has been unavoidable in nearly every sector. While many industries have suffered, the financial crisis critically wounded two -- construction and automotive. As major processors of nano intermediates containing carbon nanotubes and ceramic nanoparticles, the economic situation of these two industries is reported to shrink the projected nano market in the year 2015 by over 20%.
For example, the U.S. recorded 54% less new construction starts in April 2009 compared to April 2008, and saw 18% fewer automobile sales in 2008 relative to 2007. While these two sectors dominate news cycles, the electronics industry also lost steam in 2008. For example, shipments of electronic equipment fell worldwide in Q4 2008 relative to Q4 2007 -- by 22% in Japan, 15% in China, 13% in Europe, and 3% in the US.
The output of these three sectors is large, accounting for 10% of the U.S. GDP in 2008 and 9% worldwide. And since these are big end markets for nanomaterials and their intermediates, disruptions within them ripple back up industry value chains for nanotechnology.
At the highest level, the authors found that the market for products touched by emerging nanotechnology totaled $254 billion in 2009 and will reach $2.5 trillion in 2015 -- down 32% and 21%, respectively, compared to their previous forecast.
However, it has to be considered that these trillian dollar market projections commonly sum up total product values and not just the share of the nanotechnology or nanomaterial in a nanotech enabled product.
The authors reach the conclusion that because of long replacement cycles and lengthy design-in times in automotive and construction, players across the nanotech value chain will be feeling the aftershocks well into the next decade.
Source: ElectroIQ (David Hwang and Jurron Bradley, Lux Research)